Scenario: Davos World

From Future

[edit] Fictional Scenario: Davos World

Note: Please feel free to edit this scenario to improve its ability to be a meaningful strategic planning tool. We do request you retain the major thrust of the original scenario, but if that is too constraining, by all means develop a new scenario using one of the blanks on the scenario main page.

This scenario provides an illustration of how robust economic growth over the next 15 years could reshape the globalization process—giving it a more non-Western face. It is depicted in the form of a hypothetical letter from the head of the World Economic Forum to a former US Federal Reserve chairman on the eve of the annual Davos meeting in 2020. Under this scenario, the Asian giants as well as other developing states continue to outpace most “Western‿ economies, and their huge, consumer-driven domestic markets become a major focus for global business and technology. Many boats are lifted, but some founder. Africa does better than one might think, while some medium-sized emerging countries are squeezed. Western powers, including the United States, have to contend with job insecurity despite the many benefits to be derived from an expanding global economy. Although benefiting from energy price increases, the Middle East lags behind and threatens the future of globalization. In addition, growing tensions over Taiwan may be on the verge of triggering an economic meltdown. At the end of the scenario, we identify some lessons to be drawn from our fictional account, including the need for more management by leaders lest globalization slip off the rails. The original and full scenario for Davos World can be explored at the National Intelligence Council web page.

"Lessons Learned" This scenario illustrates the vast changes that would be likely to result from continued robust economic growth and the stresses and strains that could derail it.

• Growth in Asian markets would force domestic adjustments on the US and other Western countries that would need to be managed.
• If the global trading system became more integrated and complicated, it would be important to bring China, India and other emerging states more inside the tent, but this would require patience and potential trade-offs.
• It is unlikely that the system would be self-regulating. A strong global economy, for example, would not lead automatically to a resolution of crises like Taiwan.