Geopolitical future scenarios
From Future
Geopolitical future scenarios are concerned with global and regional political developments.
Table of Contents |
[edit] Methods
Certainties or Assumptions, Uncertainties or Key Variables and/or Wildcards may be used in geopolitical scenarios development.
[edit] USA as a superpower
America deals with turbulent times playing a pivotal leadership role, though not unchallenged.
The following is a set of four scenarios built around two key uncertainties - One relates to the approach the United States takes to international engagement (passive or aggressive), and the second is the level of regional tensions that develop in the world (high or low).
| USA is active | USA is passive | |
|---|---|---|
| high tensions | Getting Under the Umbrella | Watch Your Neighbor |
| low tensions | Where is the Gorilla? | What Threat? |
[edit] New emerging powers (potential superpowers)
Two nations (China & India) and a supra-national body (European Union) emerge as superpowers making a multipolar world.
- Davos World
- Emergence of China
- European-Union Strengthens
- Emergence of India
- Japan Robots
- Radical Iran
[edit] Religious walls
Civilizations, rooted in religion, group and/or isolate themselves.
[edit] Global Security
A scenario if regional powers or civilizations fail to develop trust. Weapons/arms proliferate.
[edit] Battle of the Sexes
- Maternalistic world how feminism dominate the world in the next two centuries
[edit] Populist USA
- Populist USA, a future scenario on the war on terror
[edit] Reference & Sources
Mapping the Global Future till 2020 by National Intelligence Council
[edit] External links
- Global Scenarios by American Council for the United Nations University
- tomorrowsthreatstoday A scenario planning on the evolution of the threat spectrum in the Euro-Atlantic area.
